Thursday Oct.15, 2020

🐔 The big chicken price scandal

_Can I fix you some chicken?_
_Can I fix you some chicken?_

Hey Snackers,

A list of things that only make sense in 2020: July is the new January, Thursday is the new Friday, and canned corn is the new TP. How many did you get?

Stocks fell yesterday after comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin deflated hopes of a stimulus deal coming together before the election.

Cluck

This big chicken price-fixing scandal means a $110M fine for Pilgrim's Pride

In the criminal chicken world... everyone has a bone to pick. Pilgrim's Pride, the US' 2nd largest chicken processor, has reached a plea deal with the DoJ on poultry price-fixing charges. It'll have to pay a $110M fine, and is expected to plead guilty. Price fixing: an (illegal) agreement among competitors that raises or lowers prices to their benefit.

  • Example: If one toilet paper company charges $5/roll, we'll buy from a cheaper company (and the pricier one loses). If every TP maker decides to charge $5/roll, we have no choice (and the TP kings make bank).
  • Eggs-ample: That's basically what Pilgrim and other companies allegedly did with chicken, pushing up prices for chains like Popeyes, Walmart, and other buyers (including us).

That's clucked up... Right. And it's bigger than just Pilgrim's. From 2012 to 2019, multiple US chicken companies (including nugget legend Tyson) allegedly coordinated to suppress competition. The DoJ says that chicken salespeople were calling each other across companies to talk price. Hypothetical eg: "Hey Bob, with KFC we're going no less than 5 cents/wing, right?"

This relates to Big Techies... Big Tech companies have been getting major heat from regulators over anti-competitive practices. The difference with tech staples like Amazon and Facebook is that they don't need to be in cahoots, because the competition basically doesn't exist.

Truckload

Uber bets on Freight for the long-haul – it’s already worth $3.3B

Don't ask for the AUX cord in this one... Uber Freight connects drivers (of massive semi-trucks) with high-volume riders (kegs of Heineken or your new furniture). In Silicon Valley speak, it's "the Uber of Logistics" — literally. Last year, Uber said Freight was its fastest-growing business. It looks like that momentum is still rolling...

  • $3.3B: How much Uber Freight is worth after raising $500M this month. PE firm Greenbriar Equity brought the cash, but Uber keeps majority ownership.
  • 65K: How many carriers Freight has in its network since launching in 2017. They work with big shippers like Bud-maker AB InBev and Nestle.
  • +11.1%: How much job postings in Indeed's driving category (including trucking) are up since the start of February.

Not a truckload of options... Trucking is generally inflexible and expensive — companies need contracts and lead-time to make their shipments. With delivery booming during the pandemic, retailers have been struggling to expand their trucking operations quickly enough. Uber Freight makes that easier and faster (#techify): gig drivers can literally book a load and get paid right in the app.

Freight is Uber's dark horse... to offset losses and grow outside the complicated world of ride-hail. Uber's Ride bookings plunged 73% last quarter on germ-avoidance and "everything is closed, anyway" syndrome. Now if Prop 22 doesn't pass in California, rides will suffer even more. Logistics is a pandemic-friendly bet.

Diversify

BlackRock looks to diversify with electric vehicles and Saudi pipelines

Check your 401(k) or brokerage account... Odds are high that you've got some $$$ in a BlackRock fund, since it's the world's largest money manager with $7.8T in assets under management (AUM) — that's worth almost 4 stimulus packages. Much of that is dominated by index-tracking ETFs, aka "baskets" of stocks that can track an index like the S&P 500. But some funds are more startup-y:

  • Electric vehicle startup Arrival just raised $118M from BlackRock funds, reportedly giving the British EV maker a $3.5B valuation. Hyundai and UPS also invested.
  • Green and lean: Arrival claims its electric-run city buses and vans can travel 300 miles without recharging and lower ownership costs by 50%.

Not so green... BlackRock is also reportedly looking to invest in a $10B+ Saudi Aramco oil pipeline deal. On the sustainability spectrum, BlackRock had a quinoa salad for lunch with Arrival and fried dough for dinner with Aramco fossil fuels.

BlackRock wants to diversify (and hedge)... instead of depending only on one food group. Diversification is meant to reduce risk by spreading investments across sectors/companies that aren't correlated. With the oil investment, BlackRock would also be hedging against potential downturns in EVs. If the oil biz loses, the EV biz is probably doing well (and vice versa).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Zen: Meditation app Calm is reportedly looking to raise money at a $2.2B valuation — great time to be in the relaxation biz.
  • Doc: UnitedHealth's profits beat expectations. You avoided doctors' offices, so it spent less while pocketing your insurance premiums.
  • Grande: Starbucks ties executives pay to diversity targets — it wants 30% of its US corporate employees to be people of color by 2025.
  • Rave: Zoom will start letting people host paid-entry online events with a new service called OnZoom (should've been ZoomChella).
  • Jet: Airlines like United and American are increasingly using pre-flight COVID testing to get people in the air again.
  • Check: Facebook and Twitter limit the distribution of an unverified New York Post story about Hunter Biden's alleged tie-up with Ukraine.

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Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Uber, Amazon, and Walmart

ID: 1369060

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Tech

SpaceX is creating NASA spaceport congestion problems

NASA is considering expanding its Wallops Island, Virginia, facilities to support three times as many rocket launches, TechCrunch reports. Why does it need space for that many rockets? Mostly Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Launches by SpaceX and other private space exploration companies have been taking off in recent years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

Currently the Wallops Flight Facility authorizes 18 launches a year. The proposed additions could bring that number up to 52. Given that the U.S. had 116 launch attempts in all of last year, an additional 34 launches adds a lot more capacity in an increasingly lucrative space.

The space economy was already worth $564 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow another 41% in five years.

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Markets

Carvana’s stock is sometimes up, sometimes down, always volatile

Shares in online car seller Carvana surged some 34% yesterday, continuing their recent resurgence. That rebound has made the father-son duo behind the company some $11B since late 2022 — a period when the stock was dropping as much as 40% in a single day, and was teetering on the verge of insolvency as creditors explored options to restructure its debt.

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

Since then the company, famous for its “car vending machines”, has seen its fortunes reverse, as the used-car market has stabilized and sales have returned to growth (up 17% in Q1 2024). Most importantly, however, Carvana seems to have gotten a handle on its massive $5B+ debt load — which was a major factor in why the equity in the company was so volatile — after swinging into profitable territory in Q1.

Yesterday’s move leaves the stock up more than 16x in the last 12 months.

Carvana stock volatility

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$110B

Apple announced a massive $110B boost in share buybacks — the biggest of all time. That’s even higher than the $90 billion analysts expected. For context in the last 12 years Apple spent a total of $650 billion buying back its own stock. The entire S&P 500 did $795 billion last year. That certainly softens the blow from a 4% decrease in revenue.

Ozempic, Wegovy drive Novo Nordisk profits up

Shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell on Thursday, as investors digested the latest hard numbers from the maker of heavily-hyped drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.

For the record, sales of both continue to explode, though sales of Wegovy, which more than doubled to kr. 9.8B, came in about 10% below analyst expectations. Ozempic sales, which slowed, actually were better than expectations.

In Danish currency terms, Q1 profit jumped 28% for the company, which is based in suburban Copenhagen. Novo Nordisk’s market value of roughly $570 billion is now larger than the entire Danish economy.

Luke Kawa
5/2/24

Short sellers are getting squeezed on Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix

Shares of Carvana, Wayfair, and Enovix were ripping Thursday morning.

These companies don’t have too much in common from a business operations standpoint — one makes batteries, another needs batteries, and one sells furniture and rugs that really tie the room together.

What they do have in common right now though: traders were betting on their shares to fall, and each released quarterly earnings reports either after the market closed on Wednesday or on Thursday morning that weren’t as bad as feared, in one way or another.

As of mid-April, short interest as a percentage of equity float for these stocks ranged from 26% (Wayfair) to 31% (Enovix), according to exchange data.

Betting against two of these companies had paid off so far this year, with Carvana being the exception. Shares of the used-car retailer were up 78% heading into Thursday’s session versus Wayfair (-14%), and Enovix (-47%). For comparison, the S&P 500 Index is up 5.8 percent year-to-date.

Hat tip to Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital, for bringing this to our attention.

World

Japan's yen is lassoed to the dollar, for better or for worse

What happens in the US economy doesn’t stay there: the Fed’s choice to keep interest rates unchanged could increase pressure pushing down the Japanese yen. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell held interest rates steady at a two-decade high. 

Before sticky interest-rates were announced, the yen on Monday flirted with (but didn’t quite hit) a 160:1 conversion rate with the US dollar. It’s widely thought that Japanese authorities intervened to prop up the yen by buying yen and selling dollars. But the suspected trading spree barely budged the yen’s value, which is the weakest it’s been vs. the dollar since the ’80s. 

ÂĽ157 to $1

Japan’s especially sensitive to US interest-rate decisions because its own rates are ultra-low. The problem: investors buy yen at low borrowing rates but quickly convert it to another currency for higher returns. 

Even just the anticipation (more like dread) of rate-cut delays has contributed to the yen’s slide. When it comes to when the Fed expects confidence to rise enough to slash rates, Powell on Wednesday left investors on read with a big “IDK.”